文章來源：【經濟學人】Aug 8th 2022 期 Leaders 欄目
America’s climate-plus spending bill is flawed but essential
美國的氣候和支出法案雖然有缺陷，但卻至關重要
The Inflation Reduction Act
降低通貨膨脹法案
The green policies and drug reforms in the Inflation Reduction Act are big victories
【降低通貨膨脹法】中的綠色政策和藥品改革是重大勝利
Aug 8th 2022
After a long, twisting path through Congress, complete with detours, delays, side-deals, disappointments and a fair amount of deceit, the Democrats are on the verge of passing a giant tax-and-spend bill. It will be America’s first significant climate law and a cornerstone of President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda. A dizzying set of tweaks was needed to keep centrist hold-outs within the Democratic Party on board, allowing the bill, seemingly dead two weeks ago, to come back to life. It passed along party lines by a single vote on August 7th in the Senate. The House is all but certain to approve it later this week. Purely as a feat of legislative legerdemain, the Democrats have much to crow about.
民主黨人在國會中經歷了漫長而曲折的道路，包括迂回、拖延、附加協定、失望和相當多的欺騙之後，他們即將透過一項巨大的稅收和支出法案。這將是美國第一部重要的氣候法，也是喬·拜登總統國內議程的基石。為了讓民主黨內部的中間派堅持立場，他們進行了一系列令人眼花繚亂的調整，從而讓兩周前看似已死的法案重獲生機。8月7日，兩黨以一票之差在參議院一致透過該法案。幾乎肯定，眾議院會在本周晚些時候透過該法案。單從立法花招的壯舉來說，民主黨人有很多值得吹噓的地方。
What of the law itself? It has many imperfections, most of which stem from the politicking needed to keep it alive. Crucially, though, it also managed two big achievements—a semblance of sanity on health-care spending and America’s most serious national effort yet to face up to climate change. And these easily outweigh the flaws.
從法律本身來看呢？它有許多缺陷之處，其中大部份都源於維持其活力所需的政治活動。然而，至關重要的是，它也取得了兩項重大成就：一是在醫療保健支出方面表現出理智，二是美國在應對氣候變遷做出了迄今為止最重要的國家努力。這些成就遠大於其缺陷。
Contrary to its name, the 「Inflation Reduction Act」 (ira) will do next to nothing to reduce inflation. The Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan scorekeeper, reckons that prices will be somewhere between 0.1% higher and 0.1% lower in 2023 than they would have been without the bill. In the longer term some measures may restrain inflation (notably, a roughly $300bn reduction in America’s budget deficit), whereas others may nudge it up (including incentives for high-cost domestic production). The name of the bill is a transparent attempt to sell it to a public that is worried about soaring prices.
【降低通貨膨脹法案】與它的名字相反，對降低通貨膨脹幾乎沒有任何作用。美國無黨派國會預算辦公室估計，到2023年，物價會比沒有該法案時高0.1%到低0.1%之間。從長期來看，一些措施可能會抑制通脹(特別是美國預算赤字減少約3000億美元)，而其他措施可能會推高通脹(包括鼓勵高成本的國內生產)。該法案的名稱顯然是為了讓擔心物價飛漲的公眾相信該法案。
Its provisions are a shadow of what Democrats once dreamed of as the signature piece of legislation from their triple control of the presidency, the House and the Senate. This time last year they were aiming for a $3.5trn package that would have dramatically expanded the American welfare state and raised taxes on the ultra-rich. But they received no Republican support and their ambitions were whittled down by their two main internal opponents. Joe Manchin, a senator from West Virginia, could not abide so much spending; and Kyrsten Sinema, a senator from Arizona, does not much like taxing the rich.
它的條款是民主黨人曾經夢想的作為總統、眾議院和參議院三重控制下的標誌性立法的一個縮影。去年這個時候，他們的目標是一項3.5萬億美元的一攬子計劃，其計劃大幅擴大美國的福利制度，並加大對超級富豪的稅收。但他們沒有得到共和黨的支持，他們的雄心壯誌也被兩個主要的內部反對者削弱了。來自西維珍尼亞州的參議員喬·曼欽無法忍受如此巨額的開支；來自亞利桑那州的參議員基爾斯滕·西內瑪則不太喜歡向富人征稅。
The original package, which featured everything from free preschool to more funding for dental care, may well have been too much for America to swallow all at once, politically and financially. But some successful policies were cast aside in the process. The extension of a monthly payment to families, temporarily implemented in the wake of covid, had cut childhood poverty by almost half. Unfortunately, it was left on the cutting-room floor.
【1】cast aside 拋棄；消除
最初的一攬子計劃包括從免費學前教育到為牙科保健提供更多資金等方方面面，無論從政治上還是經濟上，美國很可能無法一下子接受。但在這個過程中，一些成功的政策被拋棄了。在新冠疫情爆發後臨時實施的向家庭發放每月補貼的做法，將兒童貧困率降低了近一半。不幸的是，它還是被「拋棄」了。
Some of the ugliest compromises were over taxes. The arcane legislative rules for passing the bill in an evenly divided Senate—known as reconciliation—meant that the bill could not add to America’s deficit after its first decade. Mr Manchin, a fiscal hawk, went one step further, insisting that it actually shrink the deficit. The Democrats could have made a virtue of this, since many problems in the tax code need fixing. Taxing capital gains at death would have generated revenue and made America a little more equal. Reversing some of Donald Trump’s massive corporate-tax cuts from 2017 would also have been an easy solution.
【1】arcane 晦澀難解的
一些最討厭的妥協是在稅收問題上。在參議院中以均等的票數透過該法案，這一晦澀的立法規則被稱為「和解」，這意味著該法案在第一個十年後不會增加美國的赤字。財政鷹派人士曼欽則更進一步，堅稱這實際上是在縮減赤字。民主黨本可以利用這一點，因為稅法中的許多問題需要解決。在死亡時對資本利得征稅可以產生收入，並讓美國變得更加平等。撤銷當勞•杜林普從2017年開始實施的部份大規模企業稅減免政策，也會是一個簡單的解決方案。
Ms Sinema, however, rejected all such proposals. So the Democrats settled on a new 15% minimum tax on the profits of corporations with more than $1bn in annual income, as declared in their financial statements. Subjecting big companies to a basic minimum tax is an appealing idea. But levying it on their financial, or 「book」, incomes will make a messy American tax system even messier. Financial statements are subject to a different set of rules from income as reported to tax authorities. Tax-based incentives to promote investment may be partly reversed by the shift to book income. The ira does contain welcome additional funding for the over-burdened Internal Revenue Service to crack down on tax cheats. Unfortunately, overseeing the new tax will be an extra drain on its resources.
然而，西內瑪女士拒絕了所有這些提議。因此，民主黨人決定對年收入超過10億美元的公司征收15%的最低稅，這些公司在財報中公布了其年收入。對大公司征收基本最低稅是一個很有吸重力的想法。但是對他們的財務收入或「賬面」收入征稅會使本已混亂的美國稅收體系更加混亂。與向稅務機關報告的收入不同，財務報表遵循一套不同的規則。以稅收為基礎的促進投資的激勵措施可能由於向賬面收入的轉變而在在一定程度上撤銷。【降低通貨膨脹法案】確實為負擔過重的國稅局提供了值得歡迎的額外的資金，以打擊騙稅行為。不幸的是，監督新的稅收將會額外消耗其資源。
The other side of the act
Despite these drawbacks, the ira should also be judged on two important advances . First, it will enable Medicare —the government programme that provides health insurance for Americans over the age of 65— to negotiate pharmaceuticals prices with drugmakers. This will be phased in only in 2026, covering just ten drugs at first. But it is a step towards mitigating the fact that America’s health-care spending is about 19% of gdp, nearly double the average of other developed countries, while Americans’ life expectancy is lower than most. The pharmaceuticals lobby, usually a fearsome force in Washington, fought against the price negotiations, and lost. With any luck, it will face more such setbacks.
盡管有這些缺點，【降低通貨膨脹法案】還應該根據兩個重要的進展來評判。首先，它將使老年醫療保健制度(政府為65歲以上的美國人提供醫療保險的專案)能夠與制藥商談判藥品價格。這項計劃將在2026年逐步實施，最初只覆蓋10種藥物。美國的醫療保健支出約占GDP的19%，幾乎是其他已開發國家平均水平的兩倍，而美國人的預期壽命卻低於大多數國家，這一進展使其朝著緩解這一現象邁出了一步。在華盛頓，制藥遊說團體通常是一股可怕的力量，他們反對價格談判，並以失敗告終。如果幸運的話，其將面臨更多這樣的挫折。
Second, and most crucially, the ira marks a new chapter for America’s climate policy. By weaving together a vast array of tax credits, loan guarantees and grants, it will encourage people to make low-carbon purchases, such as of electric cars, and will encourage businesses to invest in green technologies and renewable energy. Rhodium, a research group, predicts that the package will cut America’s net greenhouse-gas emissions by 40% from 2005 levels in 2030. Under current policy, the reduction would be 30%. The additional amount would be roughly equivalent to two years’ worth of British emissions. Other researchers largely agree. Moreover, the bill’s design provides a roadmap for how America intends to decarbonise through the 2020s. The upshot is that it will be working alongside most of the rest of the world in trying to limit global warming—something that would otherwise have been in doubt.
其次，也是最關鍵的一點，【降低通貨膨脹法案】標誌著美國氣候政策的新篇章。透過將大量的稅收抵免、貸款擔保和撥款結合在一起，它將鼓勵人們進行低碳購買，如電動汽車，並將鼓勵企業投資於綠色技術和可再生能源。研究機構Rhodium預測，到2030年，該計劃將使美國的溫室氣體凈排放量在2005年的水平上減少40%。根據現行政策，減少量將為30%。額外的排放量大致相當於英國兩年的排放量。其他研究人員基本同意這一觀點。此外，該法案的設計為美國如何在2020年代實作脫碳提供了路線圖。最終它將與世界上大多數其他國家一起努力限制全球暖化——否則，其將受到質疑。
The climate measures are far from perfect. To secure support from Mr Manchin, the bill has partially tied the government’s hands on renewables. It will, for instance, be able to issue new wind and solar rights only after selling oil and gas leases. Market mechanisms such as a carbon price or a cap-and-trade scheme are crucial to the energy transition in many other countries. In America’s current political constellation, they are, alas, non-starters.
氣候措施遠非完美。為了獲得曼欽的支持，該法案在一定程度上限制了政府對可再生能源的控制。例如，只有在進行石油和天然氣租賃銷售後，它才能夠分配新的風能和太陽能發電的權利。在許多其他國家，碳定價或「總量控制與交易體系」等市場機制對能源轉型至關重要。哎，在美國當前的政治格局中，這是不切實際的想法。
By the same token, though, passing any kind of ambitious legislation in that constellation is a triumph. All the more so when it promises to bring real benefits for both America and the world. ■
不過，出於同樣的原因，在這一政治格局下透過任何雄心勃勃的立法都是一種勝利。當它承諾為美國和世界帶來真正的利益時，更是如此。■
