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限电对市场、行业和股市的影响

2021-10-17财经

The impact of power cuts on markets, industries and stock markets.

1. Power usage restrictions escalate.

① Twenty provinces have implemented power cuts since mid August, including the manufacturing hubs of Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu.

② Most recently, these cuts have even started to impact civilian usage.

③ Key factors contributing to such large-scale enforcement include campaign- style efforts to meet year-end energy intensity reduction targets, power supply shortages due to coal mining capacity controls and import declines, coinciding with lackluster hydropower generation, and strong YTD exports and manufacturing momentum.

2. Pressure on 2021 earnings could lead to our bear case if power cuts persist through 4Q.

① The chance that MSCI China 2021 earnings growth could slip to our bear case scenario of 11% from our base case of 16% could rise if the current campaign- style production cuts continue for the rest of this year.

② With a potential 1 ppt drag on 4Q GDP growth, the ripple effect from upstream to downstream sectors, including private consumption and services, should be watched.

③ Downward earnings estimates revision breadth has already resumed, as we had expected, and should continue as the combined impact on production, margins and earnings from the regulatory reset, macro slowdown and production delays due to power cuts become increasingly prevalent.

3. We stay cautious near term on the broad China space with increasing uncertainty on the earnings revision outlook heading into 4Q, as well as other uncertainties that we have discussed before, including.

① An extended National Day holiday period;

② Earnings pressure from regulatory reset implementation;

③ Uncertainty around timing/scale of government easing measures;

④ Nvestor concerns, particularly from foreign investors, around the potential property company default situation and the spillover effect.

4. Upstream and Utilities sector most sensitive near term with divergent reactions.

① Aluminum, for example, seems to benefit from supply constraints and rising material prices, while coal power IPPs have declined given concerns over margin decline.

② Most downstream sectors expect minor/manageable impact in the short term, but remain concerned long term.

③ With power cuts, lasting into 2022.

——唐加文