文章来源：【经济学人】Aug 8th 2022 期 Leaders 栏目
America’s climate-plus spending bill is flawed but essential
美国的气候和支出法案虽然有缺陷，但却至关重要
The Inflation Reduction Act
降低通货膨胀法案
The green policies and drug reforms in the Inflation Reduction Act are big victories
【降低通货膨胀法】中的绿色政策和药品改革是重大胜利
Aug 8th 2022
After a long, twisting path through Congress, complete with detours, delays, side-deals, disappointments and a fair amount of deceit, the Democrats are on the verge of passing a giant tax-and-spend bill. It will be America’s first significant climate law and a cornerstone of President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda. A dizzying set of tweaks was needed to keep centrist hold-outs within the Democratic Party on board, allowing the bill, seemingly dead two weeks ago, to come back to life. It passed along party lines by a single vote on August 7th in the Senate. The House is all but certain to approve it later this week. Purely as a feat of legislative legerdemain, the Democrats have much to crow about.
民主党人在国会中经历了漫长而曲折的道路，包括迂回、拖延、附加协议、失望和相当多的欺骗之后，他们即将通过一项巨大的税收和支出法案。这将是美国第一部重要的气候法，也是乔·拜登总统国内议程的基石。为了让民主党内部的中间派坚持立场，他们进行了一系列令人眼花缭乱的调整，从而让两周前看似已死的法案重获生机。8月7日，两党以一票之差在参议院一致通过该法案。几乎肯定，众议院会在本周晚些时候通过该法案。单从立法花招的壮举来说，民主党人有很多值得吹嘘的地方。
What of the law itself? It has many imperfections, most of which stem from the politicking needed to keep it alive. Crucially, though, it also managed two big achievements—a semblance of sanity on health-care spending and America’s most serious national effort yet to face up to climate change. And these easily outweigh the flaws.
从法律本身来看呢？它有许多缺陷之处，其中大部分都源于维持其活力所需的政治活动。然而，至关重要的是，它也取得了两项重大成就：一是在医疗保健支出方面表现出理智，二是美国在应对气候变化做出了迄今为止最重要的国家努力。这些成就远大于其缺陷。
Contrary to its name, the 「Inflation Reduction Act」 (ira) will do next to nothing to reduce inflation. The Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan scorekeeper, reckons that prices will be somewhere between 0.1% higher and 0.1% lower in 2023 than they would have been without the bill. In the longer term some measures may restrain inflation (notably, a roughly $300bn reduction in America’s budget deficit), whereas others may nudge it up (including incentives for high-cost domestic production). The name of the bill is a transparent attempt to sell it to a public that is worried about soaring prices.
【降低通货膨胀法案】与它的名字相反，对降低通货膨胀几乎没有任何作用。美国无党派国会预算办公室估计，到2023年，物价会比没有该法案时高0.1%到低0.1%之间。从长期来看，一些措施可能会抑制通胀(特别是美国预算赤字减少约3000亿美元)，而其他措施可能会推高通胀(包括鼓励高成本的国内生产)。该法案的名称显然是为了让担心物价飞涨的公众相信该法案。
Its provisions are a shadow of what Democrats once dreamed of as the signature piece of legislation from their triple control of the presidency, the House and the Senate. This time last year they were aiming for a $3.5trn package that would have dramatically expanded the American welfare state and raised taxes on the ultra-rich. But they received no Republican support and their ambitions were whittled down by their two main internal opponents. Joe Manchin, a senator from West Virginia, could not abide so much spending; and Kyrsten Sinema, a senator from Arizona, does not much like taxing the rich.
它的条款是民主党人曾经梦想的作为总统、众议院和参议院三重控制下的标志性立法的一个缩影。去年这个时候，他们的目标是一项3.5万亿美元的一揽子计划，其计划大幅扩大美国的福利制度，并加大对超级富豪的税收。但他们没有得到共和党的支持，他们的雄心壮志也被两个主要的内部反对者削弱了。来自西弗吉尼亚州的参议员乔·曼钦无法忍受如此巨额的开支；来自亚利桑那州的参议员基尔斯滕·西内玛则不太喜欢向富人征税。
The original package, which featured everything from free preschool to more funding for dental care, may well have been too much for America to swallow all at once, politically and financially. But some successful policies were cast aside in the process. The extension of a monthly payment to families, temporarily implemented in the wake of covid, had cut childhood poverty by almost half. Unfortunately, it was left on the cutting-room floor.
【1】cast aside 抛弃；消除
最初的一揽子计划包括从免费学前教育到为牙科保健提供更多资金等方方面面，无论从政治上还是经济上，美国很可能无法一下子接受。但在这个过程中，一些成功的政策被抛弃了。在新冠疫情爆发后临时实施的向家庭发放每月补贴的做法，将儿童贫困率降低了近一半。不幸的是，它还是被「抛弃」了。
Some of the ugliest compromises were over taxes. The arcane legislative rules for passing the bill in an evenly divided Senate—known as reconciliation—meant that the bill could not add to America’s deficit after its first decade. Mr Manchin, a fiscal hawk, went one step further, insisting that it actually shrink the deficit. The Democrats could have made a virtue of this, since many problems in the tax code need fixing. Taxing capital gains at death would have generated revenue and made America a little more equal. Reversing some of Donald Trump’s massive corporate-tax cuts from 2017 would also have been an easy solution.
【1】arcane 晦涩难解的
一些最讨厌的妥协是在税收问题上。在参议院中以均等的票数通过该法案，这一晦涩的立法规则被称为「和解」，这意味着该法案在第一个十年后不会增加美国的赤字。财政鹰派人士曼钦则更进一步，坚称这实际上是在缩减赤字。民主党本可以利用这一点，因为税法中的许多问题需要解决。在死亡时对资本利得征税可以产生收入，并让美国变得更加平等。撤销唐纳德•特朗普从2017年开始实施的部分大规模企业税减免政策，也会是一个简单的解决方案。
Ms Sinema, however, rejected all such proposals. So the Democrats settled on a new 15% minimum tax on the profits of corporations with more than $1bn in annual income, as declared in their financial statements. Subjecting big companies to a basic minimum tax is an appealing idea. But levying it on their financial, or 「book」, incomes will make a messy American tax system even messier. Financial statements are subject to a different set of rules from income as reported to tax authorities. Tax-based incentives to promote investment may be partly reversed by the shift to book income. The ira does contain welcome additional funding for the over-burdened Internal Revenue Service to crack down on tax cheats. Unfortunately, overseeing the new tax will be an extra drain on its resources.
然而，西内玛女士拒绝了所有这些提议。因此，民主党人决定对年收入超过10亿美元的公司征收15%的最低税，这些公司在财报中公布了其年收入。对大公司征收基本最低税是一个很有吸引力的想法。但是对他们的财务收入或「账面」收入征税会使本已混乱的美国税收体系更加混乱。与向税务机关报告的收入不同，财务报表遵循一套不同的规则。以税收为基础的促进投资的激励措施可能由于向账面收入的转变而在在一定程度上撤销。【降低通货膨胀法案】确实为负担过重的国税局提供了值得欢迎的额外的资金，以打击骗税行为。不幸的是，监督新的税收将会额外消耗其资源。
The other side of the act
Despite these drawbacks, the ira should also be judged on two important advances . First, it will enable Medicare —the government programme that provides health insurance for Americans over the age of 65— to negotiate pharmaceuticals prices with drugmakers. This will be phased in only in 2026, covering just ten drugs at first. But it is a step towards mitigating the fact that America’s health-care spending is about 19% of gdp, nearly double the average of other developed countries, while Americans’ life expectancy is lower than most. The pharmaceuticals lobby, usually a fearsome force in Washington, fought against the price negotiations, and lost. With any luck, it will face more such setbacks.
尽管有这些缺点，【降低通货膨胀法案】还应该根据两个重要的进展来评判。首先，它将使老年医疗保健制度(政府为65岁以上的美国人提供医疗保险的项目)能够与制药商谈判药品价格。这项计划将在2026年逐步实施，最初只覆盖10种药物。美国的医疗保健支出约占GDP的19%，几乎是其他发达国家平均水平的两倍，而美国人的预期寿命却低于大多数国家，这一进展使其朝着缓解这一现象迈出了一步。在华盛顿，制药游说团体通常是一股可怕的力量，他们反对价格谈判，并以失败告终。如果幸运的话，其将面临更多这样的挫折。
Second, and most crucially, the ira marks a new chapter for America’s climate policy. By weaving together a vast array of tax credits, loan guarantees and grants, it will encourage people to make low-carbon purchases, such as of electric cars, and will encourage businesses to invest in green technologies and renewable energy. Rhodium, a research group, predicts that the package will cut America’s net greenhouse-gas emissions by 40% from 2005 levels in 2030. Under current policy, the reduction would be 30%. The additional amount would be roughly equivalent to two years’ worth of British emissions. Other researchers largely agree. Moreover, the bill’s design provides a roadmap for how America intends to decarbonise through the 2020s. The upshot is that it will be working alongside most of the rest of the world in trying to limit global warming—something that would otherwise have been in doubt.
其次，也是最关键的一点，【降低通货膨胀法案】标志着美国气候政策的新篇章。通过将大量的税收抵免、贷款担保和拨款结合在一起，它将鼓励人们进行低碳购买，如电动汽车，并将鼓励企业投资于绿色技术和可再生能源。研究机构Rhodium预测，到2030年，该计划将使美国的温室气体净排放量在2005年的水平上减少40%。根据现行政策，减少量将为30%。额外的排放量大致相当于英国两年的排放量。其他研究人员基本同意这一观点。此外，该法案的设计为美国如何在2020年代实现脱碳提供了路线图。最终它将与世界上大多数其他国家一起努力限制全球变暖——否则，其将受到质疑。
The climate measures are far from perfect. To secure support from Mr Manchin, the bill has partially tied the government’s hands on renewables. It will, for instance, be able to issue new wind and solar rights only after selling oil and gas leases. Market mechanisms such as a carbon price or a cap-and-trade scheme are crucial to the energy transition in many other countries. In America’s current political constellation, they are, alas, non-starters.
气候措施远非完美。为了获得曼钦的支持，该法案在一定程度上限制了政府对可再生能源的控制。例如，只有在进行石油和天然气租赁销售后，它才能够分配新的风能和太阳能发电的权利。在许多其他国家，碳定价或「总量控制与交易体系」等市场机制对能源转型至关重要。哎，在美国当前的政治格局中，这是不切实际的想法。
By the same token, though, passing any kind of ambitious legislation in that constellation is a triumph. All the more so when it promises to bring real benefits for both America and the world. ■
不过，出于同样的原因，在这一政治格局下通过任何雄心勃勃的立法都是一种胜利。当它承诺为美国和世界带来真正的利益时，更是如此。■
