Israel and Palestine以色列和巴勒斯坦
Two states or one?兩國還是一國？
The peace process has become an obstacle to progress和平行程已成為進步的阻礙。
May 27th 2021 |
HAVE MORE time and effort ever been devoted to peace to so little effect? America began overseeing talks between the Israelis and Palestinians three decades ago. But the Holy Land remains contested by two peoples who cannot bring themselves to live together. The fighting in May that left 242 Palestinians and ten Israelis dead accomplished nothing except to clear the field for the next round of fighting.
歷史上是否有像巴以問題這樣的，為了和平花了那麽多時間和努力，結果卻收效甚微？美國從三十年前起就開始監督巴以和談。但雙方人民仍無法共存，為了爭搶聖地大打出手。5月發生的沖突造成242名巴勒斯坦人和10名以色列人喪生，除了為下輪沖突清除了障礙之外毫無建樹。
The peace process set up in the Oslo accords in 1993 aims to create two states that agree to disagree—using land swaps, security guarantees, a deal to share Jerusalem and a limited 「right of return」 for Palestinians. Israel’s prize was to be a thriving democracy and a sanctuary for Jews; for Palestinians it was the promise of self-rule. At times, peace has been tantalisingly close, only to recede again amid mutual recrimination.
1993年奧斯陸協定所設計的和平行程旨在建立兩個「求同存異」的國家——透過土地交換、安全保障、耶路撒冷分治以及賦予巴勒斯坦人有限的「回歸權」等手段。以色列獲得的獎勵包括建立一個繁榮的民主國家以及成為猶太人的庇護所。而巴勒斯坦人則得到承諾可以實作自治。有時，和平近在咫尺，卻又在互相指責中消失。
Today, however, instead of being a pathway to peace, the two-state 「process」 is barring the route. Everyone pretends that peace is still on the agenda when, in reality, it is not. That is a formula for strife. Almost everything that matters can be deferred with the promise that, one day, it will be resolved in a deal that is perpetually over the horizon. It is also a formula that, by default, leads to a single state.
如今，兩國「行程」不僅不是通往和平的途徑，反而成了阻礙。各國都假裝「和平」仍在議程之上，但實際並非如此。這必然會導致沖突。透過承諾有朝一日會達成協定解決所有問題（而協定達成永遠都是指日可待），幾乎一切重要事宜都可以推遲解決。這也必然會導致一個單一國家。
The idea that the two-state framework is harmful will not come as news to the Palestinians. Under it, the vision of a viable, contiguous, sovereign Palestine has receded. Palestinian territory in the West Bank is an archipelago in an expanding sea of Israeli settlements that are illegal under international law. Gaza is a solitary island, cut off by an Israeli and Egyptian blockade. The Palestinian Authority was supposed to be a government in waiting. Young Palestinians look on it as the agent of Israel’s occupation, even as they laud Hamas, the violent Islamist group that rules Gaza, for standing up to Israel.
兩國框架是有害的，這個想法對巴勒斯坦人而言並不新奇。在該框架下，一個宜居，擁有連續領土和主權的巴勒斯坦國的構想已經破滅。約旦河西岸的巴勒斯坦領土在不斷擴張的以色列定居點（據國際法這些定居點皆為違法）包圍中只是一個群島。加沙在以色列和埃及的封鎖下，被隔絕成了一座孤島。巴勒斯坦權力機構本該是未來國家的政府，卻被巴勒斯坦年輕人視為以色列占領的代理人，而控制加沙的激進伊斯蘭組織哈馬斯，因其敢於挺身反抗以色列，則受到這些年輕人的大力贊揚。
In place of the stagnant two-state effort, the new Palestinian vision is to demand individual rights in one state. Those in Gaza and the West Bank resent needing Israel’s permission (often withheld) to travel to see their families. The recent fighting was fuelled by a dispute over property in East Jerusalem, where most Palestinians are mere 「residents」. Even Israeli Arabs complain of inequality and rose up during the fighting in Gaza.
新的巴勒斯坦願景，不再努力推動陷於停滯的「兩國」方案，轉而要求在一個國家中實作個人權利。生活在加沙和西岸的人民，對於必須得到以色列特許（常常被拒絕）才能旅行探訪親友，感到痛恨不已。由於居住在東耶路撒冷的大多數巴勒斯坦人僅有「居民」身份，發生在該地區的產權糾紛更是給最近的沖突火上澆油。甚至以色列的阿拉伯人都紛紛抱怨自己的不平等地位，並在加沙沖突期間揭竿而起。
That leaves Israel in a quandary. It has thrived under Oslo. GDP per head has grown by over half in the past 30 years. Its Iron Dome missile-defence system largely shields it from Hamas’s attacks. A divided, weak Palestinian leadership suits Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, who shows little interest in the Palestinians. And it’s not just him: the conflict did not feature much in any of the four elections Israel has held since 2019.
這使以色列陷入了窘境。以色列在奧斯陸協定下蓬勃發展起來。人均GDP在過去三十年中增長了一半以上。鐵穹導彈防禦系統在很大程度上保護了國家不受哈馬斯的攻擊。巴勒斯坦領導層既分裂又軟弱，正中以色列總理內塔尼亞胡下懷，他對巴勒斯坦人沒有絲毫興趣。不僅僅是他不關註巴勒斯坦人，2019年以來以色列舉行的四次選舉中，沒有一次特別提到巴以沖突。
This cannot last. The Oslo figleaf lets Israel claim that the occupation will be undone in a final deal. As the interim power in charge, it has no duty to extend full rights to the West Bank. But 54 years after the six-day war, the idea of a temporary occupation rings increasingly hollow.
不能再這樣下去了。以色列借著奧斯陸協定這塊遮羞布，宣稱自己會在最終和平協定中撤離占領區。而作為臨時掌權者，它也沒有義務把全部權利擴大到西岸地區。但是在「六日戰爭」結束54年後，「臨時占領」這個概念顯得愈加空洞。
Without hope of an agreement, Israel’s critics have begun to talk of a 「one-state reality」. This challenges Israel: as the Holy Land has as many Jews as Palestinians, it cannot remain both Jewish and democratic while permanently controlling all of that territory. Many critics of Israeli policy, including some liberal Jews, now compare the Palestinians’ treatment to apartheid.
由於達成協定的希望渺茫，以色列批評家已開始探討「一國現實」。這使以色列面臨挑戰：由於在聖地居住的猶太人和巴勒斯坦人一樣多，以色列不可能在永久控制全部領土的同時，既保持其猶太內容又保持其民主制度。許多對以色列政策持批評態度的人，包括一些自由派的猶太人，把巴勒斯坦人所遭受的待遇稱為種族隔離。
The Palestinian demand for rights is resonating abroad, not least in the halls of America’s Congress. By allying Israel to the Republican Party, Mr Netanyahu has helped make the Palestinians part of America’s culture wars. Progressives in the Democratic Party have started to declare that Palestinian lives matter.
巴勒斯坦人對權利的要求，在海外引起了廣泛共鳴，尤其是在美國國會。內塔尼亞胡積極促成以色列與共和黨結盟，從而使巴勒斯坦人成為了美國文化戰爭的一部份。民主黨內的進步人士已開始打出「巴命貴」的口號。
America is Israel’s most important ally. True, American aid matters less than it did and Israel now produces most of its own advanced weapons. It has relations with more countries, including its Arab neighbours through the Abraham accords. Yet if it drifts away from Europe and America and towards countries like Russia, China and populist India, it will be a blow to Israel as a Western, liberal and democratic ideal.
美國是以色列最重要的盟友。確實，美國援助的重要性已大不如前，如今以色列已能夠自行制造大部份的先進武器。它也與更多國家建立了關系，比如透過亞伯拉罕協定與其阿拉伯鄰國建立了外交關系。然而要是以色列與歐洲和美國漸行漸遠，反而與俄羅斯和民粹主義的印度越走越近，那麽以一個西方、自由、民主的理想國家角度來看，這對於以色列會是當頭一擊。
More important, Mr Netanyahu’s 「anti-solutionism」 leaves his country less able than ever to navigate a future with the Palestinians. His embrace of the Jewish far right makes eruptions more likely even as it fires up militant Palestinians—witness the recent communal violence in Israeli cities. The wall that seals off Israel from the West Bank has led to deeper distrust between Arabs and Jews. The settlements, once thought negotiable, have become permanent obstacles to peace.
更重要的是，內塔尼亞胡的「反解決主義」使以色列比以往任何時候都更難駕馭與巴勒斯坦人的未來。他極力擁護猶太極右翼勢力，使得沖突更容易爆發，也更容易激怒好戰的巴勒斯坦人——最近在以色列城市中發生的族群暴力事件就是明證。而把以色列和西岸分隔開來的隔離墻更加深了阿拉伯人和猶太人之間的互不信任。曾一度被認為仍有談判余地的猶太人定居點，已經成為和平的永久阻礙。
The status quo has served Israel well but is not sustainable. Sooner or later there will be a reckoning that requires a new formula for living next to the Palestinians. Adhering to Oslo while undermining it in practice feeds the reality of one state—because it makes two states harder to realise.
現狀對以色列有利，但難以為繼。人們早晚會認識到，需要建立一個與巴勒斯坦人共存的新模式。既遵守又破壞奧斯陸協定實際上助長了「一國現實」——因為它使兩國方案更難實作。
Instead of imposing peace in one top-down stroke of diplomatic brilliance, a more realistic aim would be to build it patiently from the bottom up. The guiding principle should be to focus on the human and civil rights of Palestinians. Israel will not grant Palestinians full rights tomorrow. But it can make its Arab citizens more equal by devoting resources to their communities. It could make the administration of Jerusalem more inclusive, so that tiffs over fencing do not escalate into war. It must take more responsibility for the suffering in the West Bank and Gaza—and work harder to alleviate it.
更現實的目標應該是耐心地自下而上建設和平，而不是利用外交自上而下強加和平。指導原則應該是把重點放在巴勒斯坦人的人權和公民權利上。以色列不會一下子就賦予巴勒斯坦人全部權利。但它可以把資源投入到阿拉伯社區，使阿拉伯公民的地位更加平等。也可以在耶路撒冷的管理上更有包容性，這樣因隔離產生的口角也不至於升級成戰爭。以色列還必須對西岸和加沙走廊所遭受的苦難負更大責任，並加倍努力予以減輕。
A focus on rights also makes Palestinian leaders more accountable. They cannot easily demand rights from Israel that they deny their own people. Mahmoud Abbas is in the 17th year of a four-year term as president. His Fatah party is sclerotic. Hamas tramples the rights of its people, including women and minorities. Better Palestinian leaders are a prerequisite for peace.
對權利的關註也能促使巴勒斯坦領導人更負責任。他們不能在剝奪了自己人民的權力後，又輕易向以色列要求得到同樣的權利。阿巴斯在四年一屆的總統位子上已經坐到了第17年。他的法塔赫組織僵化不堪。哈馬斯踐踏婦女和少數民族等人民權利。巴勒斯坦需要更好的領導者，這是和平的先決條件。
Abandoning Oslo carries risks, obviously. Unbound, Israeli settlers might push farther into Palestinian territory. Hamas, which wants a single state in which Palestinians would outweigh Jews, might redouble its resistance. But today’s path is even riskier.
放棄奧斯陸協定顯然存在風險。以色列定居者若不受限制，可能會進一步向巴勒斯坦領土推進。哈馬斯想要建立一個巴勒斯坦人多於猶太人的單一國家，可能會加強抵抗。但相比之下，今天這條路更加危險。
Peace always starts by acknowledging reality. It takes root by improving lives and renewing politics. That can flourish into something new. Then, one day, the parties can start talking again about a deal, whether of one state or two. ■
和平總是從承認現實開始。透過改善生活、重建政治，和平會生根發芽，茁壯成長為新的東西。然後，會有一天，各政黨能重新開機談判，在無論一個國家還是兩個國家的問題上達成協定。
