Israel and Palestine以色列和巴勒斯坦
Two states or one?两国还是一国？
The peace process has become an obstacle to progress和平进程已成为进步的阻碍。
May 27th 2021 |
HAVE MORE time and effort ever been devoted to peace to so little effect? America began overseeing talks between the Israelis and Palestinians three decades ago. But the Holy Land remains contested by two peoples who cannot bring themselves to live together. The fighting in May that left 242 Palestinians and ten Israelis dead accomplished nothing except to clear the field for the next round of fighting.
历史上是否有像巴以问题这样的，为了和平花了那么多时间和努力，结果却收效甚微？美国从三十年前起就开始监督巴以和谈。但双方人民仍无法共存，为了争抢圣地大打出手。5月发生的冲突造成242名巴勒斯坦人和10名以色列人丧生，除了为下轮冲突清除了障碍之外毫无建树。
The peace process set up in the Oslo accords in 1993 aims to create two states that agree to disagree—using land swaps, security guarantees, a deal to share Jerusalem and a limited 「right of return」 for Palestinians. Israel’s prize was to be a thriving democracy and a sanctuary for Jews; for Palestinians it was the promise of self-rule. At times, peace has been tantalisingly close, only to recede again amid mutual recrimination.
1993年奥斯陆协议所设计的和平进程旨在建立两个「求同存异」的国家——通过土地交换、安全保障、耶路撒冷分治以及赋予巴勒斯坦人有限的「回归权」等手段。以色列获得的奖励包括建立一个繁荣的民主国家以及成为犹太人的庇护所。而巴勒斯坦人则得到承诺可以实现自治。有时，和平近在咫尺，却又在互相指责中消失。
Today, however, instead of being a pathway to peace, the two-state 「process」 is barring the route. Everyone pretends that peace is still on the agenda when, in reality, it is not. That is a formula for strife. Almost everything that matters can be deferred with the promise that, one day, it will be resolved in a deal that is perpetually over the horizon. It is also a formula that, by default, leads to a single state.
如今，两国「进程」不仅不是通往和平的途径，反而成了阻碍。各国都假装「和平」仍在议程之上，但实际并非如此。这必然会导致冲突。通过承诺有朝一日会达成协议解决所有问题（而协议达成永远都是指日可待），几乎一切重要事宜都可以推迟解决。这也必然会导致一个单一国家。
The idea that the two-state framework is harmful will not come as news to the Palestinians. Under it, the vision of a viable, contiguous, sovereign Palestine has receded. Palestinian territory in the West Bank is an archipelago in an expanding sea of Israeli settlements that are illegal under international law. Gaza is a solitary island, cut off by an Israeli and Egyptian blockade. The Palestinian Authority was supposed to be a government in waiting. Young Palestinians look on it as the agent of Israel’s occupation, even as they laud Hamas, the violent Islamist group that rules Gaza, for standing up to Israel.
两国框架是有害的，这个想法对巴勒斯坦人而言并不新奇。在该框架下，一个宜居，拥有连续领土和主权的巴勒斯坦国的构想已经破灭。约旦河西岸的巴勒斯坦领土在不断扩张的以色列定居点（据国际法这些定居点皆为违法）包围中只是一个群岛。加沙在以色列和埃及的封锁下，被隔绝成了一座孤岛。巴勒斯坦权力机构本该是未来国家的政府，却被巴勒斯坦年轻人视为以色列占领的代理人，而控制加沙的激进伊斯兰组织哈马斯，因其敢于挺身反抗以色列，则受到这些年轻人的大力赞扬。
In place of the stagnant two-state effort, the new Palestinian vision is to demand individual rights in one state. Those in Gaza and the West Bank resent needing Israel’s permission (often withheld) to travel to see their families. The recent fighting was fuelled by a dispute over property in East Jerusalem, where most Palestinians are mere 「residents」. Even Israeli Arabs complain of inequality and rose up during the fighting in Gaza.
新的巴勒斯坦愿景，不再努力推动陷于停滞的「两国」方案，转而要求在一个国家中实现个人权利。生活在加沙和西岸的人民，对于必须得到以色列许可（常常被拒绝）才能旅行探访亲友，感到痛恨不已。由于居住在东耶路撒冷的大多数巴勒斯坦人仅有「居民」身份，发生在该地区的产权纠纷更是给最近的冲突火上浇油。甚至以色列的阿拉伯人都纷纷抱怨自己的不平等地位，并在加沙冲突期间揭竿而起。
That leaves Israel in a quandary. It has thrived under Oslo. GDP per head has grown by over half in the past 30 years. Its Iron Dome missile-defence system largely shields it from Hamas’s attacks. A divided, weak Palestinian leadership suits Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, who shows little interest in the Palestinians. And it’s not just him: the conflict did not feature much in any of the four elections Israel has held since 2019.
这使以色列陷入了窘境。以色列在奥斯陆协议下蓬勃发展起来。人均GDP在过去三十年中增长了一半以上。铁穹导弹防御系统在很大程度上保护了国家不受哈马斯的攻击。巴勒斯坦领导层既分裂又软弱，正中以色列总理内塔尼亚胡下怀，他对巴勒斯坦人没有丝毫兴趣。不仅仅是他不关注巴勒斯坦人，2019年以来以色列举行的四次选举中，没有一次特别提到巴以冲突。
This cannot last. The Oslo figleaf lets Israel claim that the occupation will be undone in a final deal. As the interim power in charge, it has no duty to extend full rights to the West Bank. But 54 years after the six-day war, the idea of a temporary occupation rings increasingly hollow.
不能再这样下去了。以色列借着奥斯陆协议这块遮羞布，宣称自己会在最终和平协议中撤离占领区。而作为临时掌权者，它也没有义务把全部权利扩大到西岸地区。但是在「六日战争」结束54年后，「临时占领」这个概念显得愈加空洞。
Without hope of an agreement, Israel’s critics have begun to talk of a 「one-state reality」. This challenges Israel: as the Holy Land has as many Jews as Palestinians, it cannot remain both Jewish and democratic while permanently controlling all of that territory. Many critics of Israeli policy, including some liberal Jews, now compare the Palestinians’ treatment to apartheid.
由于达成协议的希望渺茫，以色列批评家已开始探讨「一国现实」。这使以色列面临挑战：由于在圣地居住的犹太人和巴勒斯坦人一样多，以色列不可能在永久控制全部领土的同时，既保持其犹太属性又保持其民主制度。许多对以色列政策持批评态度的人，包括一些自由派的犹太人，把巴勒斯坦人所遭受的待遇称为种族隔离。
The Palestinian demand for rights is resonating abroad, not least in the halls of America’s Congress. By allying Israel to the Republican Party, Mr Netanyahu has helped make the Palestinians part of America’s culture wars. Progressives in the Democratic Party have started to declare that Palestinian lives matter.
巴勒斯坦人对权利的要求，在海外引起了广泛共鸣，尤其是在美国国会。内塔尼亚胡积极促成以色列与共和党结盟，从而使巴勒斯坦人成为了美国文化战争的一部分。民主党内的进步人士已开始打出「巴命贵」的口号。
America is Israel’s most important ally. True, American aid matters less than it did and Israel now produces most of its own advanced weapons. It has relations with more countries, including its Arab neighbours through the Abraham accords. Yet if it drifts away from Europe and America and towards countries like Russia, China and populist India, it will be a blow to Israel as a Western, liberal and democratic ideal.
美国是以色列最重要的盟友。确实，美国援助的重要性已大不如前，如今以色列已能够自行制造大部分的先进武器。它也与更多国家建立了关系，比如通过亚伯拉罕协议与其阿拉伯邻国建立了外交关系。然而要是以色列与欧洲和美国渐行渐远，反而与俄罗斯和民粹主义的印度越走越近，那么以一个西方、自由、民主的理想国家角度来看，这对于以色列会是当头一击。
More important, Mr Netanyahu’s 「anti-solutionism」 leaves his country less able than ever to navigate a future with the Palestinians. His embrace of the Jewish far right makes eruptions more likely even as it fires up militant Palestinians—witness the recent communal violence in Israeli cities. The wall that seals off Israel from the West Bank has led to deeper distrust between Arabs and Jews. The settlements, once thought negotiable, have become permanent obstacles to peace.
更重要的是，内塔尼亚胡的「反解决主义」使以色列比以往任何时候都更难驾驭与巴勒斯坦人的未来。他极力拥护犹太极右翼势力，使得冲突更容易爆发，也更容易激怒好战的巴勒斯坦人——最近在以色列城市中发生的族群暴力事件就是明证。而把以色列和西岸分隔开来的隔离墙更加深了阿拉伯人和犹太人之间的互不信任。曾一度被认为仍有谈判余地的犹太人定居点，已经成为和平的永久阻碍。
The status quo has served Israel well but is not sustainable. Sooner or later there will be a reckoning that requires a new formula for living next to the Palestinians. Adhering to Oslo while undermining it in practice feeds the reality of one state—because it makes two states harder to realise.
现状对以色列有利，但难以为继。人们早晚会认识到，需要建立一个与巴勒斯坦人共存的新模式。既遵守又破坏奥斯陆协议实际上助长了「一国现实」——因为它使两国方案更难实现。
Instead of imposing peace in one top-down stroke of diplomatic brilliance, a more realistic aim would be to build it patiently from the bottom up. The guiding principle should be to focus on the human and civil rights of Palestinians. Israel will not grant Palestinians full rights tomorrow. But it can make its Arab citizens more equal by devoting resources to their communities. It could make the administration of Jerusalem more inclusive, so that tiffs over fencing do not escalate into war. It must take more responsibility for the suffering in the West Bank and Gaza—and work harder to alleviate it.
更现实的目标应该是耐心地自下而上建设和平，而不是利用外交自上而下强加和平。指导原则应该是把重点放在巴勒斯坦人的人权和公民权利上。以色列不会一下子就赋予巴勒斯坦人全部权利。但它可以把资源投入到阿拉伯社区，使阿拉伯公民的地位更加平等。也可以在耶路撒冷的管理上更有包容性，这样因隔离产生的口角也不至于升级成战争。以色列还必须对西岸和加沙地带所遭受的苦难负更大责任，并加倍努力予以减轻。
A focus on rights also makes Palestinian leaders more accountable. They cannot easily demand rights from Israel that they deny their own people. Mahmoud Abbas is in the 17th year of a four-year term as president. His Fatah party is sclerotic. Hamas tramples the rights of its people, including women and minorities. Better Palestinian leaders are a prerequisite for peace.
对权利的关注也能促使巴勒斯坦领导人更负责任。他们不能在剥夺了自己人民的权力后，又轻易向以色列要求得到同样的权利。阿巴斯在四年一届的总统位子上已经坐到了第17年。他的法塔赫组织僵化不堪。哈马斯践踏妇女和少数民族等人民权利。巴勒斯坦需要更好的领导者，这是和平的先决条件。
Abandoning Oslo carries risks, obviously. Unbound, Israeli settlers might push farther into Palestinian territory. Hamas, which wants a single state in which Palestinians would outweigh Jews, might redouble its resistance. But today’s path is even riskier.
放弃奥斯陆协议显然存在风险。以色列定居者若不受限制，可能会进一步向巴勒斯坦领土推进。哈马斯想要建立一个巴勒斯坦人多于犹太人的单一国家，可能会加强抵抗。但相比之下，今天这条路更加危险。
Peace always starts by acknowledging reality. It takes root by improving lives and renewing politics. That can flourish into something new. Then, one day, the parties can start talking again about a deal, whether of one state or two. ■
和平总是从承认现实开始。通过改善生活、重建政治，和平会生根发芽，茁壮成长为新的东西。然后，会有一天，各政党能重启谈判，在无论一个国家还是两个国家的问题上达成协议。
